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State of the Industry: Folding Cartons — Doing Well and Getting Better

Challenges remain, but the folding carton industry is poised for growth.

September 2008 by Chris Mc Loone
Observing current trends in the folding carton market, it would be easy to consider this a market in trouble. True, mills in North America are closing. Capacity is declining or flat. Also true is that offshore producers are encroaching on territories traditionally dominated by North American packaging producers. Energy prices affect everyone, and consolidation is a continuing issue. But is it a market in trouble? Not for Joe -Elphick, president and CEO at Colonial Carton (Clayton, N.C.). His business has grown 20 percent this year. And, sales are up 30 percent at Mid-York Press, according to Robert Tenney, president and CEO. Ben Markens, president of the Paperboard Packaging Council (PPC) says, “We think the state of the folding carton market is strong. While it’s a very competitive situation for a lot of reasons, we’re optimistic about the state of the folding carton market.”

Annual capacity statistics

The American Forest & Paper -Association (AF&PA) conducts its “Annual Survey of Paper, Paperboard, and Pulp Capacity” in which it analyzes the U.S.’s capacity to produce paper and paperboard. According to its 48th Annual Capacity Survey Synopsis, U.S. capacity to produce paper and paperboard was down 0.6 percent in 2007. Paper and paperboard capacity had declined 1.6 percent in 2006 and at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent for the period of 2000 through 2007. These declines, according to the survey, reflect weak demand for some paper and paperboard grades. “However, U.S. exports of paper and paperboard have increased briskly during the past year or so, while imports have eased, helping to support domestic production,” the survey states.

The survey shows paper and paperboard capacity declining 0.7 percent in 2008, but subsequently rebounding 0.2 percent in 2009 and 0.3 percent in 2010. For the entire three-year period, capacity is projected to contract at an average annual rate of 0.1 percent.

Unbleached Kraft paper capacity rose 2.3 percent in 2007 to 1.6 million tons following a 5.3 percent decline in 2006. This increase, according to the survey, is mainly due to reclassifying capacity from specialty papers to unbleached Kraft paper. U.S. capacity to produce this grade of paper is projected to rise 0.1 percent in 2008 and 0.6 percent in 2009, with no projected change for 2010.

Bleached packaging and industrial converting paper rose 4.4 percent in 2007, but, according to the Survey, is expected to contract 22.1 percent this year and 3.6 percent in 2009, again with no change indicated for 2010. The survey notes that bleached Kraft paper is mostly made on machines that also produce other paper and paperboard grades, so its capacity is subject to swings based on a mix of grades for any given year.
 

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